AP Political Writer

ALBANY, N.Y. -- Republican Gov. George Pataki probably has more than 90 percent of the delegate votes to the Independence Party's state convention in May already locked up, the third party's chairman said Friday.

Should that strength hold, and Independence Party Chairman Frank MacKay said it probably would, Pataki has a major edge in his bid to add the party's ballot line to his other lines for the November election.

In New York, major party candidates can add votes received on minor party ballot lines, a potentially deciding factor in a close race. Pataki is expected to also have the Republican and Conservative party lines in his bid for a third term this year.

In 1994 and 1998, as Pataki won a first and second term, the Ross Perot-inspired Independence Party had Rochester millionaire businessman and party founder B. Thomas Golisano as its candidate for governor.

But Pataki has been courting Independence Party leaders for more than a year and in recent weeks one county organization after another has come out in support of the governor, including the Monroe County chapter based in Rochester.

"If the convention were held tomorrow, he would have 90 percent or more of the votes," MacKay predicted Friday. The convention is May 18.

And while Golisano said recently he may run for governor a third time, MacKay said even if that happens, "I don't think any of the (Independence Party) people who endorsed Pataki will pull back."

Golisano would need at least 25 percent of the convention vote to automatically force Pataki into a Sept. 10 primary for the Independence Party nomination. Failing that, Golisano could go through the time-consuming and expensive process of collecting the signatures of party members to force a primary.

Golisano couldn't be reached immediately for comment on Friday.

MacKay said that in addition to winning high marks from Independence Party leaders for his handling of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, Pataki has won kudos for his support for a state constitutional amendment to bring voter initiative and referendum to New York. That is a process under which voters could bypass the governor and the Legislature to enact state laws. The Pataki-proposed amendment has yet to advance in the Legislature, the first step in any adoption.

MacKay also said Pataki has done his homework on the Independence Party while Golisano has largely ignored it in recent years.

"If you asked Pataki to name 20 county leaders in the Independence Party, he could probably do it," MacKay said. "If you asked Tom Golisano to name five county leaders, I'd bet you anything he couldn't do it. That's the crux of it."

In 1994, when he ousted then-Gov. Mario Cuomo, Pataki won on the strength of his vote on the Conservative Party line.

This year, former federal Housing Secretary Andrew Cuomo, elder son of the former governor, and state Comptroller H. Carl McCall are seeking the Democratic nomination to challenge Pataki.

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