 Photo by Thomas A. Ferrara Minor parties and "swing" voters are among the factors changing the political landscape. "I feel we're sitting on dynamite," Suffolk Independence Party Chairman Frank McKay says. ON THE WEB: MORE COVERAGE: GRAPHICS: THE FUTURE POLL: Long Island | Queens Long Island |
Gaining the Upper Hand Changes in elections and the electorate may shake up politics and power on Long Island By Rick Brand While whirling through space at 18,000 mph in the Russian space station
Mir, Wolf became the first American to cast his vote over the Internet by
laptop computer.
"Landing on the moon was a monumental . . . event," said Wolf, who may
be one day called the father of the cybervote, but his ballot "signifies
we're now moving into space to live . . . It appears somewhat silly that
with this technology, you have to go stand in line . . . just to pull a
lever."
While Wolf's one small electoral step has not yet translated into any
large-scale change in the American voting process, the technology it
represents, and its ability to increase voter participation, has the
potential over the next two decades to help alter the political landscape
of Long Island.
As Long Island politicians prepare for the 21st Century, Republicans
still enjoy a significant voter registration lead in both counties. But
the battle over whether they can maintain their century-long dominance
will be decided by how well parties attract new voters -- many of whom
will be immigrants -- how well they combat mounting voter dissatisfaction
with the major parties, and how well they adapt to technological change,
all of which have the potential to level the playing field. For example:
"The Republicans will probably continue to be the majority party, but
they'll no longer have a stranglehold," said Howard Scarrow, a political
science professor at the State University of New York at Stony Brook.
"Trends that affected every other part of the country -- ethnic
populations, media, strong candidates, re-districting -- are working
against the strong party organization and I think it will catch up with
the machine on Long Island as well."
Over the past decade, Long Island Democratic party registration has
grown 34.8 percent while Republicans have increased 19.1 percent. In raw
numbers, it means that Democrats have enlisted 14,221 more voters than
Republicans from 1989 to 1998. However, the Republicans' voter
registration edge Islandwide is so huge -- 711,000 to 499,000 -- that even
if the trend continues at the current rate, Democrats would need about 150
years to catch up.
That's why Republican strategist Michael Dawidziak sees no impending
collapse of Republican control. "Parties as a whole in many parts of the
country are meaning less and less," he said. "But if California leads the
country in that kind of thing, Nassau will be the last bastion of party
control, if not Chicago."
More significant for Democrats are the 408,000 Long Island voters not
affiliated with either major party, a group that has grown 40 percent in
the past 10 years. That growth was even higher in Nassau -- 45 percent --
with most of it coming in the past six years. In Suffolk, new non-aligned
voters have been running neck-and-neck with Democratic Party registration,
even surpassing it in 1995.
"If an independent voter has to choose between a machine politician
with major obligation to his party or the other guy, who is he going to
choose?" asked Glen Cove's Democratic mayor, Thomas Suozzi. On Long
Island, he said, that means a Democrat.
But Nassau Republican Chairman Joseph Mondello disagreed, saying that
to maintain its dominance, his organization would show the next generation
and emerging immigrant groups that it represents the average person, and
is the place where they can advance.
Experts say the drift away from parties is a national trend. "When we
started polling in the 1950s," said Gerald Pomper, a political scientist
with the Eagleton Institute of Politics at Rutgers University. "Two-thirds
never voted for the other party. Now only one-third say that."
Voter disaffection with major parties also has spawned several new
minor parties, which appear poised to become a counterbalance to the
Conservative and Right to Life Parties, which are largely aligned to
Republicans on Long Island and often give GOP candidates their margin of
victory.
The Independence Party, which grew out of upstate businessman Thomas
Golisano's gubernatorial runs in 1994 and 1998 and Ross Perot's
presidential candidacies in 1992 and 1996, may have only 18,887 registered
members on Long Island, but the party's statewide polling success has
garnered them Row C on the ballot, displacing the Conservative Party,
which has 31,600 members locally.
McKay, the Suffolk Independence Party chairman, believes his party can
tap voter unhappiness with the major parties and "be an honest broker" by
backing candidates who respond to grassroots concerns. He also said the
party is exploring forming fusion tickets with other minor parties when
their interests merge. But the party will only have a greater impact, he
added, if it can field credible candidates of their own, especially at the
top of the ticket.
"People in general aren't happy with their politicians, but we have to
give voters an alternative," McKay said. "We want to get to the point
where we can say this is going to be a third party without everyone
breaking into laughter."
Underlying the drift of voters away from the major parties is a more
distressing problem -- the increasing numbers totally divorced from the
voting process, a trend that is expected to continue in the near future.
Between 1971 and 1991, the percentage turning out for town board elections
dropped from 54 percent to 30 percent of the voting age population in
Nassau and from 47 percent to 34 percent in Suffolk.
In Nassau, Neal Lewis, executive director of Long Island Neighborhood
Network, said reduced voter interest benefits the party in control. In
Nassau, the highly organized Republican Party can turn out its voters,
which in a low-turnout vote is enough to ensure victory. "It's the analogy
of the big fish in the little pond," he said. "As the pond gets smaller,
the fish only becomes bigger."
Many states, especially in the South and West, are experimenting with a
host of approaches to improve voter participation. In April, Santa Monica
held a two-day weekend election. Other states have liberalized absentee
balloting rules.
The Department of Defense is working on a pilot project with five
counties in seven states to use the Internet, so military personnel
overseas can cast their vote electronically in next year's presidential
election.
"I don't know if guinea pig is the right word," said Mike Cowles,
elections supervisor for Orange County in central Florida. "But I do think
we're part of a select group getting to explore the future."
The project is tiny in scope -- only 350 military personnel or about 50
volunteers per county will cast their votes electronically. "Right now,
we're just trying to prove the concept," said Polli Brunelli, who heads
the five-member Pentagon team working on the project.
Most New York voters -- and all Long Islanders -- still go to the polls
in the same way as their parents and grandparents, using the heavy,
lever-laden mechanical voting booth. And Thomas R. Wilkey, executive
director of New York's election board, said he sees little change in the
offing.
"It's a cultural thing," said Wilkey. "I think the feeling of most is
if it isn't broke, why fix it."
If politicians are having difficulty engaging the current voters, Long
Island's shifting population with growing immigrant groups will create
stiffer challenges. Hispanics now make up 9.6 percent of Long Island's
population, slightly more than blacks at 8 percent. Hispanics are
projected to make up about 17 percent of the Island's population by 2020.
Asians, now only 4 percent, also could eclipse blacks and reach as high as
15 percent, according to projections of the Metropolitian Transportation
Council. Non-Hispanic whites, who now make up 8 of 10 in the population,
will drop to 6 of 10 by 2020.The black population will only grow slightly,
to 9 percent, according to council forecasts.
In the Newsday Future Poll, conducted by Louis Harris and Associates,
most respondents predicted that minority groups would see ther numbers
translated into electoral power in the next 20 years: 75 percent said it
is likely a black candidate would be elected county executive of either
Suffolk or Nassau in that time, 68 percent said it is likely a Hispanic
would be elected, and 57 percent said it was likely an Asian would.
While many Democrats believe they have opportunities to win over the
emerging minority populations, some party officials concede that until
recently, there has been little organized effort to recruit Hispanics or
Asians to their side.
Suffolk Legis. Maxine Postal (R-Amityville), whose district includes a
significant Hispanic population, sees the possibility of a largely
Hispanic county legislative district in the Central Islip-Brentwood area
when the once-a-decade reapportionment occurs after the 2000 census.
But she warned that the Latino population encompasses widely diverging
interests and Democrats can't take their support for granted. "Many people
in the Hispanic community don't identify themselves as part of the
minority community," she said. "I think Latinos naturally lean toward the
Democrats, but we need to demonstrate that."
Velez, who started the Hispanic Democratic Club in Brentwood this year,
said, "Every Hispanic person should be in the Democratic Party because
they are the party that opened the door."
But Ray Lopez, head of Nassau Republicans' local chapter of the
Hispanic National Assembly, said many Hispanics are conservative by nature
and are drawn to the Republican Party because of its traditional family
values. His group's membership, which started seven years ago, grew in the
past year from 75 members to 356 and he hopes to nearly double the number
again this year. The Suffolk chapter of the same group has nearly 100
members.
"In 10 years, we'll be playing a vital role, especially in certain
villages like Hempstead, Freeport, Westbury and Long Beach," he said.
Another battlefield centers on efforts to attract the votes of women.
Democrats believe their party can tap into the gender gap on issues such
as gun control, the environment, health and education. In response,
Republicans have begun to run an increasing number of women candidates and
have started to champion issues such as breast cancer prevention and
treatment.
"Nassau Republicans have survived for a very long time because it [the
party] tends to take care of its own," said Tanya Melich, a Republican
consultant. "Once it became obvious that taking care of your own meant
including women, it meant that women started getting nominations."
Over the past 12 years, the number of women in Long Island's 37-member
congressional and State Legislature delegation has grown from two to
seven, but that's still far below the more than half the population they
represent. Of Long Island's 109 top elected jobs -- Congress, state and
county legislatures, county executive, city mayor and town supervisors,
women hold only 19 of them, or 17.4 percent. By party, the breakdown is
almost even -- 10 Democrats and nine Republicans.
Nassau Legis. Lisanne Altmann (D-Great Neck) said the predominantly
male political leadership in both parties is beginning to realize that
women may make natural candidates. "I think it's beginning to dawn on them
that we're pretty well connected through the PTA, we hang out at our kids'
soccer games and when you're in the supermarket you see everyone. We tend
to be visible in ways that men aren't," she said.
Nassau Republicans, for example, ran and won with women candidates,
Maureen O'Connell and Kathleen Murray, in both open Assembly races in last
year's special election. And they are running breast cancer activist Geri
Barish for the county legislature in a special election May 4. In the
Future Poll, 92 percent expected to see a woman county executive on Long
Island by 2020.
If a change in the make-up of elected officials is still in the offing,
there have already been large-scale changes in the governmental machinery
in the past quarter century -- the creation of county legislatures in both
Nassau and Suffolk -- that have made a huge difference in the political
dynamic, an impact that will only grow in the 21st Century.
In Suffolk, the county legislature with its manageably sized districts
-- about 70,000 -- has given Democrats a greater chance at election, and
once elected, given them a more visible platform that some have used as a
springboard to higher office. In Nassau, Republicans on the four-year-old
county legislature have openly challenged the Republican administration on
a number of controversial issues, including huge county budget deficits,
bringing an unusual degree of public debate to the county.
Paul Sabatino, counsel to the Suffolk legislature, said the county
legislatures can "open the political process for those who are more
independent and parties that are not in the clear majority because it
gives them a forum that can get the attention of the public."
Meanwhile, the same desire for more accountable representation is
spurring movements in Long Island's two largest towns, Hempstead and
Brookhaven, to throw out the system that forces all town board candidates
to wage the expensive and exhaustive battle to be elected on a townwide
basis. Critics want to replace it with a set-up where each town board
member will represent a smaller specific district, reducing the
Republicans' massive organizational and financial advantage.
Diana Reaven, president of the League of Women Voters of Brookhaven,
said having councilmanic districts will make elections for board seats
more competitive, and force the parties to put up better candidates. Now,
Republicans, relying on their voter registration edge and financial
ability to campaign townwide, can dominate most town elections. There are
no Democrats on either the Brookhaven or Hempstead boards.
"We all know who is in power now and they run people for the town board
when they can't think of anything else to do for them," said Reaven. "We
don't want the leftovers running the government."
Similar efforts are also afoot in Islip and Southampton, both GOP
controlled, while Democrats who control the Town of Babylon, seeing the
trend, have taken the initiative to put the issue on their own town ballot
after opposing the initiative in court several years ago.
Nassau Legis. Roger Corbin (D-Westbury) said he believes the new
court-mandated redistricting in Hempstead will result in the election of
at least one or two Democrats from minority communities to the five-member
board.
In Suffolk, voters last year also adopted public financing of county
races such as county executive and the county legislature, starting with
the 2003 election. Republicans long have dominated fund-raising and public
financing would help other parties be competitive in a legislative
campaign.
Under Suffolk's voluntary system, a candidate for county legislature
could get up to $10,000 in public funds by raising $5,000 on their own in
small contributions. But as part of the agreement, they must agree to
limit their spending to $30,000 on the general election. A county
executive candidate would have to raise $75,000 in small contributions to
qualify for $300,000 in public financing, but then have to agree to limit
overall spending on the race to $500,000.
What makes the law unusual is unlike New York City and the federal
financing systems, which use an income tax check-off, Suffolk uses a
property tax check off of up to $5.
Anne Riordan, chairman of the five-member Suffolk committee charged
with implementing the new system, said she hopes public financing will
reduce the electoral clout of special interests and give the public a
greater stake in the ballot. "People feel they don't own the government
anymore," said Riordan, a League of Women's Voters official.
"I think this will be empowering for voters, giving them something they
feel they can do."
Times have changed and both parties know it. When Howard DeMartini ran
his first countywide primary in the late 1970s, he sent teams of party
workers for weeks to the sweltering Yaphank warehouse of the Suffolk Board
of Elections. There, they manually mined politicians' gold -- a list of
"prime voters," those who cast ballots in every single election.
"We had 10 or 15 people every day to go through each and every buff
card -- the record of a person's voting history," said DeMartini. "Only
the strongest organization was able to accomplish such a task."
Today, Democratic campaign operative Elle Mystal, with a personal
computer, off-the shelf software and $25 CD-ROM available from the
elections board, can compile a similar list in minutes. "It has leveled
the playing field for Democrats," said Mystal, a legislative aide and
former head of the Suffolk County Black Democratic Caucus.
DeMartini agrees. "In the last 20 years, we've seen a dimunition of the
power of the political parties at all levels," he said. "I don't see any
of the trends reversing in the next 20 years."
|
